Alan H wrote:I'll try a slightly different tack: about all you've said Nick so far is that the benefit of being out of the EU is that we won't be in it
yes, that is how it seems to me; BTW, welcome back to this thread Nick
Thanks, animist! How wise it is for me to return remains to be seen...
Trouble is that you tend to bring other considerations into your posts, eg the eurozone, despite the fact that you know that Britain is not in it;
Tat is because I believe such things to be extremely relevant, even though we are not in it. Any institution which cannot see that the devastation caused by their own policy is not one to be trusted. Secondly, their continued direction of travel towards a United States of Europe, which could easily lead to ultimata such as join or leave, besides all sorts of other nasties.
also, the fact that Leave did win the referendum.
..as well as a thumping majority in Parliament.
So yes, let's focus on your hunch that Britain must leave the EU before the latter collapses. What real evidence is there that collapse is likely?
Historically, empires have a habit of collapsing, (though a precise definition is hard to agree upon). Why should the EU be any different? I would also suggest that leaving lessens the likelihood of collapse, rather than just trying to escape such a collapse, which, as you say, would be pretty impossible to do. We have tried reform from within, and failed, with no prospect of any future success by this method. If you do what you've always done, you're gonna get what you've always had.
You often mention the rise of far right groups in some countries, but this is getting a bit old hat now and relates mainly to the sudden influx of Asian and African refugees in 2015.
Made worse by it, certainly, but I think it has more to do with a perception of democratic deficit, and the growing frustration that governments seem to be able to address people's concerns. I don't see that going away, especially where policies are likely to make matters worse, not better.
Even the eurozone seems to be doing reasonably well,
Hmmm... not really. Large parts are in deep doo-doo still.
and there seems to be no feeling of desperation among the 27.
Euroskepticism is stronger in some parts of the EU than it was in Britain at the time of the referendum. It's just that EU governments dare not hold a referendum, and the EU is doing its utmost to put the frighteners on.
So, unless you can respond strongly to Alan's challenge to give positive reasons for Brexiting, your position seems to be that it is better for Britain to take lots of pretty obvious risks in order to escape a larger organisation which, for whatever reasons you have, you believe to be on the point of collapse.
Not immediate collapse, no. Just the continuing imposition of bad policy, leading to eventual failure. Whether that leads to collapse or radical reform remains to be seen.
Not very convincing.
And even if the EU was in real trouble, would a sudden attempt to escape be reasonable?
You've only just finished explaining how our withdrawal won't be sudden! What is unreasonable is the EU's attitude to the prospect of our departure.
It would be difficult for Britain to escape without suffering some of the fallout.
true, especially given the reaction of the EU institutions.
Basically (and you are not the only person to constantly predict the EU's imminent collapse, or alternatively, imminent transformation into a totalitarian state) the commonsense response is that old proverb: cross your bridges when you come to them
As noted above, neither are imminent, nor have I ever said they are, but there is more than one proverb! When you find yourself in a hole, the first thing to do is stop digging! That's real common sense!